CLSA says any correction in the market due to poll related uncertainty could be a buying opportunity.
Despite a healthy March-May quarter (Q3FY22) show by global IT consulting firm Accenture, Indian IT companies shed up to 3 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday as analysts continued to highlight medium-term pain points for the sector. The Nifty IT index settled 0.9 per cent lower on Friday, as against a 0.9 per cent rise in the Nifty50 index. According to analysts at ICICI Securities, Accenture's Q3 saw moderation in year-on-year growth rate across verticals and US regions, which signals at likely normalisation in revenue momentum for Indian IT services going forward.
'Younger investors start their journey with very little capital so they are risking less while they have a lot of time to experiment and learn early on.'
The results of Indian IT services players in the just-concluded fourth quarter of 2021-22 are expected to reveal continuing growth momentum as demand surges on the back of digital transformations and the cloud shift, but analysts anticipate margins to be under pressure due to supply challenges. Analysts covering the sector expect revenue commentary should be strong despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation. Top-line growth will be driven by broad-based demand with a strong uptick for cloud, digital, cybersecurity, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, among other services.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
Product launches to drive incremental volume growth for players such as Maruti Suzuki; medium and heavy commercial vehicle revival on track.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Given that there has been no negative news flow around Zomato, analysts believe it's time to lap up the shares at lower levels.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. The agency lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. "We forecast growth of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year from our March forecast of 11 per cent," S&P said.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
While Mukesh Ambani-led RIL posted a 108 per cent YoY rise in profit after tax for Q4FY21 at Rs 13,227 crore, it fell short of Bloomberg estimate of Rs 13,704 crore.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
Officials from State-run refiners contend that savings from purchase of Russian oil are used to offset a part of the losses in revenues from selling transport fuels and LPG at State-set rates.
Morgan Stanley says favourable factors will push Sensex to 32,500 level by December.
The economy is expected to throw up better numbers in the September quarter with GDP contraction of 9.9 per cent, as against 24 per cent in Q1 at the onset of the pandemic, says a report. The government will release the Q2 GDP numbers later this month. In the first contraction since 1980, the economy shrank a full 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal after the whole nation was put under a strict lockdown.
While there has been a rash of growth estimate cuts, including a 0.70 percentage point reduction by the RBI last month to 6.1 per cent, the Japanese brokerage's estimate is so far the lowest.
"Declining market turnover due to dwindling retail and institutional investor participation, significant correction in stock prices, dismal investment banking outlook and a worsening macroeconomic scenario do not bode well for brokerage firms," as per a report by German banking major Deutsche Bank. The bank maintains negative outlook for two of the leading brokerages in the country India Infoline and Edelweiss Capital.
Given the company's expansion into internet and retail, more investments including mergers and acquisitions seem highly likely.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
A strong performance by sectors including banking raised the profits of Indian companies by 28 per cent in the three months ended March 2022. The rate of growth is, however, lower than the 30 per cent seen in December. Growth in net sales was also lower than what was seen in the December quarter for the sample under consideration.
UBS reduced its Nifty target to 8,600 by December from 9,200.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
While small-caps have delivered higher returns than their large-cap peers, investors would do well to recognise the incremental risk of investing in these companies.
Currently, TCS is India's second most valuable firm after Reliance Industries, which has a market cap of nearly Rs 12.9 trillion.
The Sensex, which began the year at 26,160.90 level, has shed nearly 1,400 points.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
The brokerage said it has high hopes for recovery and reforms following the general elections.
Indian funds did better than Asian ones in only four of the 10 months -- till October. Despite much market optimism, presumably around policy interventions and guided by buoyant flows, India's macro backdrop may be turning for the worse.
As the rupee breached the 57-level against the dollar on Friday, Deutsche Bank said the fall is temporary and it was not worried about outlook of the Indian unit which is likely to bounce back in second half of 2013.
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
Barbeque Nation IPO: The promoters hold 60.24 per cent stake, CX Partners owns 33.79 per cent and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's investment firm Alchemy Capital holds 2.05 per cent in the company.
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
India Inc has high hopes from the upcoming Budget.
Deutsche Bank expects the Sensex to climb only 8% in 2017 to 29,000, and expects high volatility.
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
The brokerage reduced its target price for the company to Rs 995 per share from Rs 1,350 apiece. Credit Suisse said RIL's liabilities increased from $19 billion to $65 billion in four years.
Rising prices of international coal - both coking and thermal - used in the making of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, respectively, are expected to have an impact on margins of metals companies in July-September quarter (Q2) as steel companies may see margins getting eroded, while the base firms could stand to benefit, said brokerages.
